Schedule riskThrough October 17, 2026
6% of schedules run through the free Schedule Risk Analyzer have at least even odds of finishing by their planned date
Of 230 free and anonymous schedules simulated. At least even odds means the P50 finish, the day half the runs finish by, falls on or before the finish the file states.
6%
P50 on or before the planned finish
n = 230
6%
P80 on or before the planned finish
n = 230
12 days
Typical P50 slip past the planned finish
n = 230
18 days
Typical P80 slip past the planned finish
n = 230
8%
Typical P80 slip, as a share of the planned duration
n = 229
11 days
Typical uncertainty band, P10 to P90
n = 230
4%
Typical uncertainty band, as a share of the planned duration
n = 229
Slip is counted in calendar days from the planned finish (the finish the file states, or the finish its links give when it states none) to the simulated date. The uncertainty band runs from P10, the day one run in ten beats, to P90. A share of the planned duration counts from the project start to the planned finish.
Risk by plan size
Grouped by the number of tasks the simulation varied, in bands, never exact sizes.
| Group | P50 on time | Typical P80 slip | Typical P10 to P90 band |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 to 49 tasks | 4% n = 79 | 13 d n = 79 | 10 d n = 79 |
| 50 to 199 tasks | 9% n = 88 | 19 d n = 88 | 10 d n = 88 |
| 200 to 999 tasks | 6% n = 52 | 24 d n = 52 | 10 d n = 52 |
Risk by near-critical tasks
A near-critical task is on the critical path in at least 20% and under 80% of runs. The more of them, the more paths can take over the finish.
| Group | P50 on time | Typical P80 slip | Typical P10 to P90 band |
|---|---|---|---|
| No near-critical tasks | 7% n = 124 | 13 d n = 124 | 8 d n = 124 |
| 1 to 4 near-critical tasks | 8% n = 50 | 11 d n = 50 | 12 d n = 50 |
| 5 to 19 near-critical tasks | 6% n = 32 | 23 d n = 32 | 13 d n = 32 |
| 20 or more near-critical tasks | 0% n = 24 | 51 d n = 24 | 19 d n = 24 |
Risk by merge points
A merge point is a task waiting on two or more others, where a late input delays it whichever one runs over.
| Group | P50 on time | Typical P80 slip | Typical P10 to P90 band |
|---|---|---|---|
| No merge points | 5% n = 86 | 8 d n = 86 | 8 d n = 86 |
| 1 to 9 merge points | 3% n = 36 | 15 d n = 36 | 7 d n = 36 |
| 10 to 49 merge points | 9% n = 58 | 22 d n = 58 | 14 d n = 58 |
| 50 or more merge points | 8% n = 50 | 65 d n = 50 | 15 d n = 50 |
Quality meets risk: missing links
Plans with tasks that have no links against plans where every task is linked. A task with no links cannot push anything later, so a narrow band on such a plan can be certainty it has not earned.
| Group | P50 on time | Typical P80 slip | Typical P10 to P90 band |
|---|---|---|---|
| Every task linked | 6% n = 197 | 22 d n = 197 | 12 d n = 197 |
| Some tasks with no links | 9% n = 33 | 4 d n = 33 | 4 d n = 33 |
What drives the finish
Of the five tasks whose duration moves each plan's finish the most, pooled across plans, the share in each group by how often the task was critical.
- Critical in 80% of runs or more53%n = 1,126
- Near-critical (critical in 20% to 79% of runs)15%n = 1,126
- Off the critical path (under 20% of runs)32%n = 1,126
How we counted: free and anonymous uploads to the Schedule Health Check, the MPP viewer, Onplana Schedule and the Schedule Risk Analyzer. Paying customers’ plans are never included. We read counts only, never file, task or company names. Any figure from fewer than 20 schedules is left out. Read the Privacy Policy section.
How does your schedule compare?
Put your own plan through the same simulation in the browser, free, for its P50, P80 and P90 finish. Or open and check it on Windows and Mac with Onplana Schedule, a free download.